Analyzing the Conference Semifinal Matchups: Grizzlies-Thunder, Bulls-Hawks, Lakers-Mavericks, and Celtics-Heat

Zach Randolph used to be just fat. Now he's fat AND good!

So I hate to be a gloater and rub accurate predictions in the faces of readers who love to question my stances in the comment section of my columns, but yes, to the chagrin of the long-time Duncan fans who read my articles, I purposely never talked about the Spurs as true competitors throughout the season because I knew SA didn’t hold one advantageous matchup against any of the elite teams in the west.

However, I’m still shocked that they lost to the Grizzlies, a team with a starting 1-2-3 of Mike Conley, Sam Young, and Tony Allen.

Now I’m left pondering the same simple questions that the rest of us are carrying after realizing the lack of talent in the Grizzlies’ backcourt: When did Zach Randolph attain the skills of a big-man superstar and the audacity to play at a high level in the most critical moments of his young playoff career? More importantly, why does Marc Gasol look like a Bro from Georgia when he grew up in the same house as the world-famous Spanish ballerina, Pau Gasol?

I don’t have the answers to these questions, but I can offer some analysis towards the matchups in the Conference Semifinals:

Grizzlies-Thunder

The Grizzlies were able to dominate San Antonio because of the Spurs’ lack of defensive intensity and depth in the paint. Traditionally, the Spurs have been able to cope with any interior offensive threat through Duncan and a continually swarming team defense. However, age and Matt Bonner ended their chances against Randolph and Gasol.

Marc Gasol, allegedly a red-neck after cutting his hair, scolding an African American named Gay

Contrarily, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins of OKC will afford very few open looks to Randolph and Gasol. Against OKC, Randolph has to rely considerably on his jumper, which surprisingly has been very pretty thus far in the playoffs. Yet, I don’t know if he will be as comfortable taking those shots while being physically pounded by Perkins and swatted by Ibaka in the lane. Gasol will still score successfully because his shots are so ugly and unconventional that no one really knows how to guard them anyway.

I think Battier/Allen will do a great job on Durant. Both have historically been excellent defenders on jump-shooters in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Conley will be destroyed by Westbrook, which I think will be the difference-maker in this series barring any crazy, emotional road wins by the Grizzlies. For this reason, I’m picking the Thunder in 6.

Bulls-Hawks

As great as Derrick Rose looked in the fourth quarters of the Pacers-Bulls series, the Pacers were still able to expose Chicago’s fatal flaw: double and triple-team Rose defensively and their offense will melt. I understand that Chicago was still successful against the Pacers, but remember, the Pacers’ best players are Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Granger.

This is Zaza Pachulia's wife (you know, the guy that headbutts people)

Even though they lack in legitimate skills, Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia will effectively help Al Horford with Boozer and Noah on the boards. In my opinion, out-rebounding the Bulls should be Atlanta’s biggest focus in the series next to forcing Rose to take tough shots.

Speaking of which, Rose will have his way against the Hawks especially now that Kirk Hinrich isn’t expected to play. I personally do think Hinrich will play, but I just don’t know in which game. Against Jamal Crawford, I expect Rose to have a few games with 35+ points and 8+ assists. Additionally, I don’t think Atlanta’s offense will be as balanced without Hinrich’s patient set-ups.

For these reasons, I believe the Bulls will in 6 games. But if Hinrich joins the mix by game 2, I think this series will go 7 with Chicago’s home crowd pushing the Bulls past the finish line.

Lakers-Mavericks

Personally, I find this series to have the most intriguing matchups of any of the conference semifinals. Both teams have playoff-ready players from positions 1-5 in their starting lineups (with the exception of Dallas starter Deshawn Stevenson, but he plays rarely compared to Terry/Peja off the bench). Both have improved their depth in the offseason or during the season. Lastly, both teams have aging superstars.

I really do remember those biceps being bigger last year...

Ironically, though both teams have been exceptional in the past 12 years, they have never played each other in the Kobe-Dirk era. Dirk traditionally has exceptional statistical performances against the Lakers in the regular season, but I think Phil Jackson will do a great job mixing Odom, Artest, and Gasol in defending him.

Likewise, traditionally, the Mavericks’ biggest problem against the Lakers is their inability to stop Kobe. Therefore, Caron Butler’s injury status (he may return for this round) could play a significant role as Butler can potentially act as a decent Kobe-stopper.

I do believe Gasol will wake up in this series; Dirk is just not a physical defender and Gasol will bounce out of his funk by playing a fellow European. The Lakers now balance their main offensive touches among Kobe, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum, and with two legitimate low-post players scoring well, the Lakers should prevail. I’m taking the Lakers in 6 with a heartbreaking, close Mavs’ loss in Dallas that will leave everyone including Laker fans even more sympathetic towards Dirk Nowitzki.

Heat-Celtics

This will be the NBA’s bread-and-butter financially in the conference semifinals with seven all-stars in one series.

Wade only shot 20 FTs in this playoff game instead of his standard 35

I spent last weekend discussing how Rondo will make life difficult for Miami’s defenders, but because each round in the NBA playoffs takes 3+ weeks to complete, I have to offer some matchup analysis again. Therefore, I’ll spend this one discussing the role Lebron and Wade will play.

I really believe Danny Ainge traded for Jeff Green to guard Lebron and Kobe even though Green is listed as PF at times. I still doubt that Ainge traded away Perkins to save money. He would have sacrificed a few extra million dollars in paying Perkins and luxury taxes at the expense of a championship as another title would bring that and more in merchandise and increased franchise value. Instead, I think Ainge truly didn’t think he could beat Miami or LA without someone to guard their superstars after losing Tony Allen to Free Agency.

Other columnists on this blog get mad at me when I comment on such photos so I'll refrain...

Thus, I expect Rivers to use a combination of Pierce and Green to try to shut down Lebron. And yes, I do think they’ll be somewhat successful. Lebron will be relegated more to a facilitating role. However, Ray Allen will have no shot at defending the speedy Wade, particularly with no secondary help as the double teams will be sent Lebron’s way. Wade will have monster stats for these reasons.

In addition to Wade’s mismatches, I still believe Boston lost this series when they were blown out in early April by Miami and sacrificed home advantage. Miami in seven.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in NBA. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Analyzing the Conference Semifinal Matchups: Grizzlies-Thunder, Bulls-Hawks, Lakers-Mavericks, and Celtics-Heat

  1. Yogesh Raghunathan says:

    Not bad. You severely underestimate Conley. He is a true point guard who outplayed Tony Parker, and he’ll out play Westbrook. Westbrook will have more points because of his athleticism, but Conley will have more assists and shoot more efficiently.
    Indiana barely double or triple-teamed Rose. He was played by Collison and George effectively. Rose shot poorly because he attempts ridiculous shots over a crowd. Rose is good enough to make these, but that’s not a good strategy in the playoffs. Without Hinrich Atlanta stands 0 chance. Not because of D. Rose, but because Hinrich is by far the smartest player in Atlanta for running an offense. Crawford is a ball hog and a chucker who will single handedly lose the game if he starts.
    I think the Lakers-Mavs will go to 7 games. The Laker bigs will take a while to adjust. Bynum is better than Chandler, but Dirk is better than Pau. Kidd will have to continue to have a good post season as he’s matched up with yet another slow veteran point guard. Matrix and J.E.T will own the Laker bench who are struggling. Haywood will also provide good size to counter the Laker trio. Lakers should prevail in the end though.
    You have no idea how great a defender Ray Allen is. Check the stats to see how Dwayne Wade and Kobe did against him last post season. Check Wade’s stats during the regular season. Yeah… He’s that good. Home court is only important if two teams are equally matched. Boston has 5 multiple all-stars starting against 2 super stars and one all star. Boston has better coaching. Boston has better bench. Boston in 4.

  2. kidveesh says:

    Thanks for commenting Yogresh.

    As to your first point, Conley will have nothing on Westbrook; Westbrook is currently a much better/athletic PG than Tony Parker. This argument; however, is tough to prove statistically so we’ll have to see how it plays out.

    As to your second, Rose was definitely double-teamed within fifteen feet of the basket as the Pacers swarmed immediately after penetrating. I agree he wasn’t double-teamed outside the three point line.

    To your third point, yeah sure the series might go seven. And I agree with what you said.

    Lastly, Kobe averaged 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists last year in the finals. If you take out his terrible game 7 performance, which was more self-induced than anything, he shot over 43 %, a mark that isn’t too far off his typical regular season shooting percentage. Additionally, he spent a lot less time being guarded by Ray Allen and more by Tony Allen in fourth quarters because Ray was just drained (besides the first half of game 2, Ray played terrible throughout the series because of fatigue). So no, Kobe’s stats were decent.

    As to Wade haha: Wade went 33/7/6 on a whopping 56% shooting last year against Boston in the playoffs. I understand that you’re probably a Boston fan, but there’s absolutely no argument there for whoever you guys had guarding him. I agree Wade struggled during the regular season against Boston particularly in the first three games, but I still attribute that to Miami continuing to develop. In the last game in April, Wade wasn’t terrible successful (4 for 12 going 14/8/4), but Miami still blew out Boston in a game that both teams wanted to win (the two seed was on the line). In that game, Wade didn’t have to play long term minutes or have to be isolated with Allen on many plays.

    So in reality, Ray Allen is not a special defender. And let’s be real, there’s no way this series will be a sweep. Besides New York, who has Boston even swept in the past three years? Even if they do beat Miami, the Celtics are more of a grind-out team than the athletic team needed to sweep a lesser opponent.

  3. Hello to every single one, it’s genuinely a good for me
    to pay a visit this web page, it contains priceless Information.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s